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Economics & Markets
Macroeconomics and movements in financial markets impact many aspects of our lives. Having a well-informed view of what could transpire can help mitigate the risks we face and uncover profitable opportunities.
Our most recent publications
July 16, 2024
Topical Thoughts: A New Republic?
You’d be forgiven for not knowing many of France’s prime ministers. The nation’s political system has in recent history put much more emphasis on a hyper-powerful president, who directs policy to a friendly and aligned National Assembly. This is an oversimplification, but nevertheless a useful practical understanding. It also no longer applies. President Macron’s decision to call a snap election has led to an extremely divided lower house. Any policy agenda, including a much-needed budget, will require negotiations spanning different ideologies. We ultimately think that the French political system, the economy, and financial markets, will cope with the new reality. But the necessary move to a political culture of compromise will see volatility, and the 2027 Presidential election looms large.
Explore publications Download the PDFJuly 15, 2024
Weekly Macro & Markets View, Week 29
- US inflation readings post lowest
gains in years
CPI inflation surprises positively at both the headline and core levels, increasing the odds of a Fed rate cut in September. - A second round of apparent Bank
of Japan intervention strengthens
the yen from its 38-year high of
around 161.80 to 157.40
The estimated volume of USD 22bn was lower than that during the previous intervention in late April, but was enough to push the rate back to its 55-day moving average. - China’s economic data for June and
Q2 continue to disappoint, with
exports remaining the bright spot,
while domestic demand struggles
The focus will be on reform measures during the Third Plenum and stimulus measures during the Politburo meeting later this month.
July 04, 2024
Mid-year Outlook 2024: An uneasy calm
Despite Covid becoming a distant nightmare to most of us, the impact on the global economy remains profound. Taking stock at the mid-point of the year highlights how the excesses and distortions are still being digested, in a period that we would characterise as the ‘great normalisation’. An economic rebalancing is underway, with inflation and now interest rates falling and every data release commanding attention. It seems all too easy to look past war, geopolitical conflict and political change and embrace each tick lower in inflation as the key to prosperity and well-being. Financial markets are in rude health, with stocks up and credit spreads tight, and the US tech goliaths are vying for the title as the world’s most valuable company. While global growth and financial market prospects look to be good, an uneasy calm is present as fragilities linger in the shadows.
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Weekly Macro & Markets View
Designed to give clear interpretation of the previous week’s macroeconomic and financial market developments. This publication represents how Zurich sees the financial landscape evolving on a week-by-week basis.
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Monthly Investment Insights
Structured to give a succinct view of the investment outlook and economic prospects for the coming months. Focus is on key developments from an investment perspective, with a tactical view presented on the major asset classes of equities, credit and government bonds.
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Inflation Focus
A quarterly publication, conveying the most likely outlook for inflation over the subsequent 12-24 months. Global and regional views are provided, detailing the driving forces behind the outlook. Point forecasts are offered for the major coverage areas, with short-term moves and pressures also identified.
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Topical Thoughts
Investigative research on specific issues that affect the business environment, with expert thoughts and opinions provided on an ad hoc basis.
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Economic and Market Outlook
With a 12 months focus, this publication is designed as a reference document for multiple user groups. It is segmented by region and provides in-depth coverage of both economic and financial market fundamentals, as well as the underlying trends that are observed.
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Mid-Year Outlook
An update on the Economic & Market Outlook is provided, gauging developments and projecting how the months ahead are likely to unfold.
Explore the Mid-Year OutlookVideos and Podcasts
To compliment some publications, a series of short videos and, in the case of Topical Thoughts and the Economic and Market Outlook, more detailed podcasts are available.
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