Our view on
Economics & Markets
Macroeconomics and movements in financial markets impact many aspects of our lives. Having a well-informed view of what could transpire can help mitigate the risks we face and uncover profitable opportunities.
Our most recent publications
January 20, 2025
Weekly Macro & Markets View, Week 4
- US headline inflation picks up to
2.9% YoY, but core CPI slows from
3.3% YoY to 3.2% YoY
Price pressure remains elevated, but bond yields dropped substantially after the publication of the inflation data. - Large US banks report strong
earnings and indicate a positive
outlook for M&A activity
A pickup in M&A and LBO activity is likely to be positive for stocks but negative for credit, reinforcing our favourable view of US stocks vs credit in a multi-asset context. - China’s balance sheet problems
cannot be masked by meeting the
official 5% real GDP growth target
for 2024
While the credit impulse continues to deteriorate, the upcoming US tariffs for China’s goods imports and the lingering property crisis require a strong and convincing policy boost at the upcoming National People’s Congress in March.
January 16, 2025
Topical Thoughts
Robust growth and inflation figures in the US have caused the Fed to take a more hawkish stance and signal a slower pace of monetary easing. This has triggered a substantial rise in global bond yields which weighs on financial markets and the growth outlook. Inflation normalisation remains on track in most regions while it will take longer in the US, particularly if the incoming administration implements the inflationary policies announced during the campaign. Given elevated inflation rates and an uncertain policy outlook in the US we expect bond markets to remain volatile in the coming quarters. Nevertheless, global government bond yields are likely to fall back from current levels.
Explore publications
January 10, 2025
Monthly Investment Insights, January 2025
Key developments
- US government bond yields are creeping close to their 2024 high marked in April, with any major setbacks likely to be temporary amid President-elect Trump's policy outlook
- In China, investor sentiment remains depressed, though further monetary and fiscal policy support are in the offing
- In the Eurozone, France’s budget negotiations and German election campaigning will define regional markets in January
Explore our publications
Weekly Macro & Markets View
Weekly Macro & Markets View
Designed to give clear interpretation of the previous week’s macroeconomic and financial market developments. This publication represents how Zurich sees the financial landscape evolving on a week-by-week basis.
Monthly Investment Insights
Monthly Investment Insights
Structured to give a succinct view of the investment outlook and economic prospects for the coming months. Focus is on key developments from an investment perspective, with a tactical view presented on the major asset classes of equities, credit and government bonds.
Inflation Focus
Inflation Focus
A quarterly publication, conveying the most likely outlook for inflation over the subsequent 12-24 months. Global and regional views are provided, detailing the driving forces behind the outlook. Point forecasts are offered for the major coverage areas, with short-term moves and pressures also identified.
Topical Thoughts
Topical Thoughts
Investigative research on specific issues that affect the business environment, with expert thoughts and opinions provided on an ad hoc basis.
Economic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook
With a 12 months focus, this publication is designed as a reference document for multiple user groups. It is segmented by region and provides in-depth coverage of both economic and financial market fundamentals, as well as the underlying trends that are observed.
Mid-Year Outlook
Mid-Year Outlook
An update on the Economic & Market Outlook is provided, gauging developments and projecting how the months ahead are likely to unfold.
Videos and Podcasts
To compliment some publications, a series of short videos and, in the case of Topical Thoughts and the Economic and Market Outlook, more detailed podcasts are available.
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