Insights on the global economy and the implications for underwriting
Global economies have for the most part proved their resilience through a pandemic, rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, providing hope that they are robust enough to withstand any further shocks, a panel of experts agreed.
There remain concerns over global economic issues, said Ron Davis, Global Head of Customer Management at Zurich Commercial Insurance. But despite such worries, “there is still cause for optimism,” he added.
Davis was the moderator of a discussion sponsored by Zurich that examined the state of global economies, some of the trends and challenges expected to shape them in coming years, and how insurers and risk managers might be affected. He was joined by Guy Miller, Zurich’s Chief Market Strategist and Economist, and Penny Seach, Group Chief Underwriting Officer at Zurich.
Global growth should track historical trends, but not without headwinds, according to Miller. Like fissures under a frozen pond, there are fractures underneath what appears to be a reasonably good worldwide economy, he said.
Conflict in the Middle East and the war Ukraine, elections in many countries, troublesome inflation and high interest rates are among the issues that could challenge growth, Miller said.
These factors are also associated with rapid changes in the risk landscape for both insurers and risk managers, which Seach pointed out. “The world continues to be complex and fast-moving,” she said, and it is vital for both Zurich and our customers to understand these changes in order to assess the potential impacts on both business and insurance.
Challenges make for uneven growth
The global economic environment remains heavily impacted by changes in behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic, Miller pointed out.
Pandemic lockdowns that kept people from moving around caused a surge in demand for manufactured goods and significant falloff in the need for services, Miller explained. During a time of booming global trade, economies such as Germany’s soared as consumers clamored for goods produced there.
But as the pandemic waned, so did demand for goods. “Economies like Germany that are heavily export-dependent have really been suffering over the last year or two,” Miller said.
Meanwhile, service-dependent economies have surged since lockdowns were lifted. Spain, for example, “is doing extremely well” as the world’s second-most-popular destination for travel, he added.
Worldwide, Miller said trend-like growth should continue in many parts of the world, with some countries lagging and others showing surprising strength.
Read the entire webinar summary to learn about the current global economic developments and the implications for underwriting. Download the document below.
The webinar featured the following speakers:
- Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist and Economist, Zurich Insurance Company
- Penny Seach, Group Chief Underwriting Officer, Zurich Insurance Company
- Ron Davis, Global Head of Customer Management, Commercial Insurance, Zurich Insurance
